During the week, the ruble was traded in a horizontal channel: the price for 1 US dollar fluctuated in the range of 64 - 66 rubles. Relative stability, reminiscent of the calm before the storm, is associated with the fastening of the barrel in the price range of $ 48-50 after the price rebound last week.
Unfortunately, the currency markets are still very modestly reacting to the improvement of the situation in the hydrocarbon market, preferring to play out the negative headlines with great enthusiasm, including the revision by the international rating agency S & P of the Russian rating to "non-investment" level. According to estimates by Moody's and Fitch, Russia is also at the last stage of the investment part of the rating scale, so that S & P may become the first agency that will lower the rating to "junk". Lowering the ratings can have a meaning?! This will put pressure on Russian Eurobonds and increase capital outflow from the country. Sanctions and the aggravated geopolitical situation in Ukraine continue to make the country unattractive for investments, and a downgrade could significantly exacerbate the situation.
At the opening of MICEX trading on Friday, January 23, the ruble appreciably strengthened to 62.9, however, while there is no longer any long-term trend. The International Energy Agency and OPEC are confident that in the near future oil production will be reduced in countries outside the cartel, which, instead of reducing the volume of supplies, on the contrary, increases production. This means that the growth of the barrel is temporary, and so the Russian ruble has nothing to catch. On the other hand, if the barrel of Brent drops again ?!? $ 45, then the dollar will not keep you waiting and will rise above 65-66 rubles. It can be said that the markets are in anticipation of further movement of the barrel. Reducing the cost of oil, up to 40 dollars and below, waiting and rating agencies as a signal for a downgrade of Russia.
Against the background of the weakening of the value of the Russian national currency, it is worth paying attention to the behavior of the EUR / USD pair, which has seen a downward trend since July last year. This week, on Thursday, during a press conference ECB President Mario Draghi announced the launch of a quantitative easing program, which would seriously increase the pressure on the euro. At the current rate of easing very soon, Russians will be able to see on the scoreboard in the currency and operating cash desks, as the value of the dollar and euro in ruble terms will equal.
